Category Archives: Future-oriented technology analysis

Evolution of emerging iPS cell-based therapies for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Research profiling

Stem cell-based regenerative medicine is poised to revolutionize the way diseases are treated. In recent years, induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells, a newly stem cell species, has attracted significant attention. This paper seeks to understand the pathways along which emerging clinical research efforts in the field of iPS cells is evolved. In particular, the empirical case of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is used, which is the world-pioneering clinical application of iPS cells. In line with the literature, this study explores the interrelations between three different pathways, such as biomedical scientific understanding, development of medical technologies, and learning in clinical practice. For this, a techmining approach is used including co-term, co-citation, and direct citation methods. Scientific publications indexed in the Thomson Reuters’ Web of Science and Elsevier’s Scopus databases form the basis of the study. This research first explores the iPS cell research landscape through the construction of a co-term map, particularly stressing the location and intensity of disease-tackling efforts; then focus on the evolution of scientific knowledge on AMD through co-citation networks and the main path algorithm on direct citations. At the researcher level, the development of four different research groups working on cell therapies for AMD is evaluated through the software CitNetExplorer. By integrating these approaches, the result shows a wider picture of the complexities inherent in the translation of knowledge into revolutionary clinical methods.

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=7273173

Author(s): A. Avila-Robinson, N. Islam
Organization(s): Kyoto University
Source: 2015 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET)
Year: 2015

Technology Early Warning Model: A New Approach Based on Patent Data

CTI, Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Research Type, Strategic planning

With the development of technology, more and more technical issues have been exposed, such as technical disputes, technical barriers and technical crisis. Thus, it is necessary to warn enterprises about technical deviation and predict future technology crises. Patent data can contain much information about technologies and would be useful in this setting. This paper proposes a technology early warning model based on patent data. This model helps enterprises analyse the technical crisis level and trends from four different perspectives (technical stability, technical monopoly, technical security and technical prospects).

http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-1437/ipamin2015_paper4.pdf

Author(s): Ganlu Sun, Ying Guo, Fan Yang
Organization(s): Beijing Institute of Technology
Source: Proceedings of the Second International Workshop on Patent Mining and
its Applications (IPAMIN)
Year: 2015

A Technology Foresight Model: Used for Foreseeing Impelling Technology in Life Science

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Research Type

This paper constructs an Impelling Technology Foresight Model (ITFM) for foreseeing impelling technology in the field of life science, which is a comprehensive model consisting of four class indicators: international scientific environment, evolving of papers and patents, collaboration features of patent assignees’ collaboration networks, and impacts. A case study was carried out in the field of life science. Recombinant DNA (RbDNA) and Monoclonal Antibody (mAb) were selected as impelling technologies to carry out the case study. ELISA Diagnosis (ELISA) and Fermentation Technology (FT) were defined as non-impelling technologies to be control group. Results revealed that impelling technologies have higher evolving rates from the stage of growth to maturity. Significant policies or programs usually boost the rapid progress of impelling technologies. Impelling
technologies have much higher impact than non-impelling ones. Collaboration behaviour is much more broad and general for impelling technologies. To our knowledge, this is the first study carried out to date to foreseeing impelling technologies at this way.

Author(s): Yunwei Chen, Yong Deng, Fang Chen, Chenjun Ding, Ying Zheng and Shu Fang
Organization: Chengdu Library of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Source: Proceeding of 15th International Conference on Scientometrics and Infometrics
http://www.issi2015.org/files/downloads/all-papers/0920.pdf
Year: 2015

Identification of technology development trends based on subject–action–object analysis: The case of dye-sensitized solar cells

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Research Type,

Identification of technology development trends is essential for supporting decision makers in forecasting and identifying related innovation activities and industrial growth. Different from the traditional technology development trends based on keyword-based quantitative methods, which usually predict trends by finding key technologies without showing how to develop them, our method allows the identification of future direction and industry goal for the technology domain and shows detailed paths for achieving them. Thus, our method has constructed technology roadmapping (TRM) with seven layers (material, technology, influencing factor, component, product, goal, and future direction) on the basis of subject–action–object analysis. The detailed paths for developing this as a trend can be shown by the interaction among these TRM elements. In addition, the method also sets three indicators as a discriminating standard to find key players that can support the trend by engaging technological innovation scenarios. The case of a dye-sensitized solar cell (DSSC) is exemplified to illustrate the detailed procedure of our method. The results reveal the development trends in the field of DSSCs, the detailed paths to achieve them, and key countries that support them.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251500133X

Author(s): Xuefeng Wang, Pengjun Qiu, Donghua Zhu, Liliana Mitkova, Ming Lei, and Alan L. Porter
Organization(s): Beijing Institute of Technology, University Paris-Est Marne la Vallée, and Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Year: 2015

Green Energy Prospects: Trends and Challenges

Biz lit, Future-oriented technology analysis, novel source, Patents, Research Examples, Research Type, S&T lit, Strategic planning,

The transition of energy systems moving from non-renewable fossil-nuclear to renewable sources is a key challenge of climate mitigation and sustainable development. Green energy technologies can contribute to solutions of global problems such as climate change, growth of energy consumption, depletion of natural resources, negative environmental impacts, and energy security. In this article the prospective directions of technology development in green energy are studied and analyzed using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative research involves participation of key experts in the field of green energy, while quantitative analysis includes collecting and processing data from different information sources (scientific publications, patents, news, Foresight projects, conferences, projects of international organizations, dissertations, and presentations) with a help of Vantage Point software. In addition, key challenges for green energy as well as its relationships with other technological and non-technological areas are identified and briefly described on the basis of expert and analytical results.

http://www.igi-global.com/article/green-energy-prospects/129675

Author(s): S. Filippov, N. Mikova, and A. Sokolova
Organization(s): Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Higher School of Economics
Source: International Journal of Social Ecology and Sustainable Development (IJSESD)
Year: 2015

Tech Mining to Generate Indicators of Future National Technological Competitiveness: Nano-enhanced Drug Delivery (NEDD) in the US and China

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Research profiling, ST&I indicators,

“Global technological competitiveness” is widely acknowledged, but the challenge is to go beyond this recognition to develop empirical indicators of important transitions. These may concern particular technologies, the competitive position of particular organizations, or national/regional shifts. For decades, the US has been the world leader in biomedical technologies, with attendant implications for organizational priorities in terms of R&D location and market targeting. Recent years have seen a tremendous acceleration in Asian research in most domains, including biomedical, particularly visible in China. This paper investigates comparative patterns between the US and China in a promising emerging area of biotechnology — Nano-Enhanced Drug Delivery. It then explores indicators of, and implications for, future transitions at the national level — an approach we label “Forecasting Innovation Pathways.” http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514000900 Highlights

  • Tech mining generates indicators for future national technological competitiveness.
  • The case is a promising emerging area of biotechnology — Nano-Enhanced Drug Delivery.
  • We investigate comparative patterns between the US and China.
  • Results can provide insight into the approach of “Forecasting Innovation Pathways.”

Author(s): Ying Guo, Xiao Zhou, Alan L. Porter, and Douglas K.R. Robinson Organization(s): Beijing Instititute of Technology, Georgia Institute of Technology, Université de Paris-Est Source: Technological Forecasting & Social Change Year: 2015

Forecasting the Big Services Era: Novel Approach Combining Statistical Methods, Expertise and Technology Roadmapping

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Strategic planning

This paper aims at proposing a novel approach to gathering and structuring information concerning an emerging technology, generating a relevant profile, identifying its past evolution, forecasting the short and medium-term evolution and integrating all of the elements graphically into a hybrid roadmap. The approach combines four families of technological forecasting methods, namely: Statistical Methods in terms of Bibliometrics and Data Mining; Trend Analysis; Descriptive Methods in terms of Technological Roadmapping; and Expertise. Its future application to forecast the evolution of emerging IT trends in current entities, which are creating the Big Services era, is proposed as future work.

http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-14078-0_42#

Author(s): Iñaki Bildosola, Rosa Rio-Bélver, Ernesto Cilleruelo
Organization(s): University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU
Source: Enhancing Synergies in a Collaborative Environment [Springer International Publishing] Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering
Year: 2015

Analyzing patent topical information to identify technology pathways and potential opportunities

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Examples, Research Type

As a basic knowledge resource, patents play an important role in identifying technology development trends and opportunities, especially for emerging technologies. However patent mining is restricted and even incomplete, because of the obscure descriptions provided in patent text. In this paper, we conduct an empirical study to try out alternative methods with Derwent Innovation Index data. Our case study focuses on nano-enabled drug delivery (NEDD) which is a very active emerging biomedical technology, encompassing several distinct technology spaces. We explore different ways to enhance topical intelligence from patent compilations. We further analyze extracted topical terms to identify potential innovation pathways and technology opportunities in NEDD.

Author(s): Jing Ma and  Alan L. Porter
Organization(s): Beijing Institute of Technology and Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: Scientometrics
Year: 2014

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11192-014-1392-6

Integrating bibliometrics and roadmapping methods: A case of dye-sensitized solar cell technology-based industry in China

Future-oriented technology analysis, Research Type

Emerging industries are attracting increasing attention as they engage in innovation activities that transgress the boundaries of science and technology. Policy makers and industrial communities use roadmapping methods to predict future industrial growth, but the existing bibliometric/workshop methods have limitations when analyzing the full-lifecycle industrial emergence, including the transitions between science, technology, application, and the mass market. This paper, therefore, proposes a framework that integrates bibliometrics and a technology roadmapping (TRM) workshop approach to strategize and plan the future development of the new, technology-based industry. The dye-sensitized solar cell technology-based industry in China is selected as a case study. In this case, the bibliometrics method is applied to analyze the existing position of science and technology, and TRM workshops are used to strategize the future development from technology to application and marketing. Key events and impact on the development of the new, technology-based industry have been identified. This paper will contribute to the roadmapping and foresight methodology, and will be of interest to solar photovoltaic industry researchers.

Highlights

  • We develop a framework for roadmapping the emerging technology-based industry.
  • A roadmap of the dye-sensitized solar cell technology-based industry is developed.
  • We find that research on dye-sensitized solar cells has been very active.
  • We find that China is one of the leaders in dye-sensitized solar cell area.

Author(s): Xin Li, Yuan Zhou,  Lan Xue and Lucheng Huang
Organization(s): School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University and Beijing University of Technology
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Year: 2014

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514001644