Technological innovation is a dynamic process that spans the life cycle of an idea, from scientific research to production. Within this process, there are often a few key innovations that significantly impact a technology’s development, and the ability to identify and trace the development of these key innovations comes with a great payoff for researchers and technology managers. In this article, we present a framework for identifying the technology’s main evolutionary pathway. What is unique about this framework is that we introduce new indicators that reflect the connectivity and the modularity in the interior citation network to distinguish between the stages of a technology’s development. We also show how information about a family of patents can be used to build a comprehensive patent citation network. Finally, we apply integrated approaches of main path analysis (MPA)—namely global MPA and global key-route main analysis—for extracting technological trajectories at different technological stages. We illustrate this approach with dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs), a low-cost solar cell belonging to the group of thin-film solar cells, contributing to the remarkable growth in the renewable energy industry. The results show how this approach can trace the main development trajectory of a research field and distinguish key technologies to help decision makers manage the technological stages of their innovation processes more effectively.
For source 10.1109/TEM.2020.2966171
Author(s): Ying Huang, Fujin Zhu, Alan L. Porter, Yi Zhang, Donghua Zhu, Ying Guo
Organization(s): Wuhan University, Beijing Institute of Technology, University of Technology Sydney, China University of Political Science and Law
Source: IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management
This research identifies emergent topical trends of chitosan technology and its applications and constructs technological directions for business strategy in a hyper-competitive environment. A total of 2,612 scientific papers on chitosan technology published between 2010 and 2019 was retrieved from Web of Science (WoS) using various search queries. Results from ibliometric predictive intelligence (BPI) modelling highlight four major emergent topics related to technology convergence, namely shelf life, regenerative medicine, therapeutic agents, and antioxidant capacities. Four potential industries for chitosan application were identified: healthcare; cosmetics; agriculture; and food and beverages. The findings reveal a 75% increase in research publications since 2016 compared with previous years, which in turn illustrates the potential of technological goals to stimulate socially responsible research in the future.
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Author(s): Worasak Klongthong, Nongnuj Muangsin, Chupun Gowanit, Veera Muangsin
Organization: Chulalongkorn University
Source: Proceedings: 2020 ISPIM Connects Bangkok – Partnering for an Innovative Community
To what extent is scientific research related to societal needs? To answer this crucial question systematically we need to contrast indicators of research priorities with indicators of societal needs. We focus on rice research and technology between 1983 and 2012. We combine quantitative methods that allow investigation of the relation between ‘revealed’ research priorities and ‘revealed’ societal demands, measured respectively by research output (publications) and national accounts of rice use and farmers’ and consumers’ rice-related needs. We employ new bibliometric data, methods and indicators to identify countries’ main rice research topics (priorities) from publications. For a panel of countries, we estimate the relation between revealed research priorities and revealed demands. We find that, across countries and time, societal demands explain a country’s research trajectory to a limited extent. Some research priorities are nicely aligned to societal demands, confirming that science is partly related to societal needs. However, we find a relevant number of misalignments between the focus of rice research and revealed demands, crucially related to human consumption and nutrition. We discuss some implications for research policy.
As winner of the October 2019 Elsevier Atlas Award, FULL-TEXT is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.10.027
Author(s): Tommaso Ciarli, Ismael Ràfols
Organization(s): SPRU (Science Policy Research Unit), University of Sussex; Universitat Politècnica València
Source: Research Policy
Scientometric methods have long been used to identify technological trajectories, but we have seldom seen reproducible methods that allow for the identification of a technological emergence in a set of documents. This study evaluates the use of three different reproducible approaches for identifying the emergence of technological novelties in scientific publications. The selected approaches are term counting technique, the emergence score (EScore) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). We found that the methods provide somewhat distinct perspectives on technological. The term count based method identifies detailed emergence patterns. EScore is a complex bibliometric indicator that provides a holistic view of emergence by considering several parameters, namely term frequency, size, and origin of the research community. LDA traces emergence at the thematic level and provides insights on the linkages between emerging research topics. The results suggest that term counting produces results practical for operational purposes, while LDA offers insight at a strategic level.
For FULL-TEXT https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-019-03275-w
Author(s): Samira Ranaei, Arho Suominen, Alan Porter, Stephen Carley
Organization(s): VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Lappeenranta University of Technology, Search Technology
This study explores the patterns of exchange of research knowledge among Education Research, Cognitive Science, and what we call “Border Fields.” We analyze a set of 32,121 articles from 177 selected journals, drawn from five sample years between 1994 and 2014. We profile the references that those articles cite, and the papers that cite them. We characterize connections among the fields in sources indexed by Web of Science (WoS) (e.g., peer-reviewed journal articles and proceedings), and connections in sources that are not (e.g., conference talks, chapters, books, and reports). We note five findings—first, over time the percentage of Education Research papers that extensively cite Cognitive Science has increased, but the reverse is not true. Second, a high percentage of Border Field papers extensively cite and are cited by the other fields. Border Field authors’ most cited papers overlap those most cited by Education Research and Cognitive Science. There are fewer commonalities between Educational research and Cognitive Science most cited papers. This is consistent with Border Fields being a bridge between fields. Third, over time the Border Fields have moved closer to Education Research than to Cognitive Science, and their publications increasingly cite, and are cited by, other Border Field publications. Fourth, Education Research is especially strongly represented in the literature published outside those WoS-indexed publications. Fifth, the rough patterns observed among these three fields when using a more restricted dataset drawn from the WoS are similar to those observed with the dataset lying outside the WoS, but Education Research shows a far heavier influence than would be indicated by looking at WoS records alone.
Author(s): Alan L. Porter, David J. Schoeneck, Jan Youtie, Gregg E. A. Solomon, Seokbeom Kwon, Stephen F. Carley
Organization(s): Search Technology, Georgia Tech, US National Science Foundation
Online patent databases are powerful resources for tech mining and social network analysis and, especially, identifying rising technology stars in co-inventor networks. However, it’s difficult to detect them to meet the different needs coming from various demand sides. In this paper, we present an unsupervised solution for identifying rising stars in technological fields by mining patent information. The solution integrates three distinct aspects including technology performance, sociability and innovation caliber to present the profile of inventor, meantime, we design a series of features to reflect multifaceted ‘potential’ of an inventor. All features in the profile can get weights through the Entropy weight method, furthermore, these weights can ultimately act as the instruction for detecting different types of rising technology stars. A K-Means algorithm using clustering validity metrics automatically groups the inventors into clusters according to the strength of each inventor’s profile. In addition, using the nth percentile analysis of each cluster, this paper can infer which cluster with the most potential to become which type of rising technology stars. Through an empirical analysis, we demonstrate various types of rising technology stars: (1) tech-oriented RT Stars: growth of output and impact in recent years, especially in the recent 2 years; active productivity and impact over the last 5 years; (2) social-oriented RT Stars: own an extended co-inventor network and greater potential stemming from those collaborations; (3) innovation-oriented RT Stars: Various technical fields with strong innovation capabilities. (4) All-round RT Stars: show prominent potential in at least two aspects in terms of technical performance, sociability and innovation caliber.
Author(s): Lin Zhu, Donghua Zhu, Xuefeng Wang, Scott W. Cunningham, Zhinan Wang
Organization(s): Beijing Institute of Technology
We explore the contention that the seminal US National Academies consensus report,How People Learn(HPL),played a major role in bridging the flow of knowledge from Cognitive Science to Education. Our paper yielded four important results: First, HPL is, on a number of bibliometric measures, an unusually interdisciplinary work.Focusing on the fields of particular interest here, our citation analysis shows the Education, Cognitive Science,and Borderfield (e.g., Educational Psychology, Learning Sciences, and Learning Technology and Human-Computer Interaction) literatures all to have been major influences on it. Second, we found HPL to be unusually highly cited–and by publications from an unusually diverse set of disciplines. Beyond Education, Cognitive Science, and Border field publications, HPL was also relatively highly cited by publications in Medical/Health-related, Engineering, and other Discipline-Based Education Research fields. Third, undermining the claim that HPL served as a gateway to the Cognitive Science literature, we found Education articles citing HPL not to be more likely to have Cognitive Science as a major influence than are Education articles more generally, as in-dicated by their cited references. Finally, the Education publications that cited HPL were far more likely to refer to concepts in HPL that were already prevalent in the Education literature rather than to concepts from Cognitive Science. Conversely, the Cognitive Science publications that cited HPL were more apt to refer to concepts already in the Cognitive Science literature. Taken together, these results are a caution that, even for a highly regarded multidisciplinary work cited widely by publications from multiple disciplines, its direct influence could be largely disciplinary. Implications for the policy goals of fostering interdisciplinary research and the role of National Academies consensus reports are discussed.
For FULL-TEXT https://authors.elsevier.com/c/1ZUWNB5ASBucq
Author(s): Gregg E. A. Solomon, Jan Youtie, Stephen Carley, Alan L. Porter
Organization(s): National Science Foundation, Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: Research Policy
Many fields are managing better by incorporating advanced data analytics – e.g., even sports such as baseball. We illustrate with a novel set of indicators that distinguish cutting edge R&D activity to provide competitive technical intelligence on “who’s doing what, where, and when.” Our aim is to stimulate your thinking about what data analytics could help you achieve your technology management goals more effectively.
Author: Alan Porter
Organization: Search Technology
Source: IEEE Engineering Management Review
This study empirically examines the association between the extent of emerging technological ideas in a scientific publication and its future scientific impact measured by number of citations. We analyze metadata of scientific publications in three scientific domains: Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Synthetic Biology, and Autonomous Vehicles. By employing a bibliometric indicator for identifying and quantifying emerging technological ideas – as derived terms from the titles and abstracts – we measure the extent to which the publication contains emerging technological ideas in each domain. Then, we statistically estimate the size and statistical significance of the relationship between the publication-level technological emergence score and the normalized number of citations accruing to the publication.
Our analysis shows that the degree to which a paper contains technologically emerging ideas is positively and strongly associated with its future citation impact in each of the three domains. An additional analysis demonstrates that this relationship holds for citations from other publications, both in the same field as, and in different fields from, the scientific domain of the focal publication. A series of tests for validation further support our argument that the greater the extent to which scientific knowledge (a paper) contains emerging ideas, the bigger its scientific impact. Implications for academic researchers, research policymakers, and firms are discussed.
Free download available through September 14, 2019 at https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1ZS8SB5ASBuce
Author(s): Seokbeom Kwon, Xiaoyu Liu, Alan L. Porter, Jan Youtie
Organization(s): Georgia Institute of Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology
Source: Research Policy
Technological Convergence (TC) reflects developmental processes that overlap different technological fields. It holds promise to yield outcomes that exceed the sum of its subparts. Measuring emergence for a TC environment can inform innovation management. This paper suggests a novel approach to identify Emergent Topics (ETopics) of the TC environment within a target technology domain using patent information. A non-TC environment is constructed as a comparison group. First, TC is operationalized as a co-classification of a given patent into multiple 4-digit IPC codes (≥2-IPC). We take a set of patents and parse those into three sub-datasets based on the number of IPC codes assigned 1-IPC (Non-TC), 2-IPC and ≥3-IPC. Second, a method is applied to identify emergent terms (ETs) and calculate emergence score for each term in each sub-dataset. Finally, we cluster those ETs using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to generate a factor map with ETopics. A convergent domain – 3D printing – is selected to present the illustrative results. Results affirm that for 3D printing, emergent topics in TC patents are distinctly different from those in non-TC patents. The number of ETs in the TC environment is increasing annually.
Author(s): Zhinan Wang, Alan L.Porter, Xuefeng Wang, Stephen Carley
Organization(s): Beijing Institute of Technology, Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change