Measuring Tech Emergence

2018-2019 Contest & Conference Track

Periodically check this website for any changes as well as the latest information

Contest is closed

**Limited-time FULL-TEXT access to paper describing contest**

A. Porter, D. Chiavetta, N. Newman. “Measuring tech emergence: A contest.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol. 159. October 2020

We are pleased to announce the results of the VPInstitute Measuring Tech Emergence Contest.

1st Prize : Team led by Jin Mao, Wuhan University

2nd Prize: Team led by Shuo Xu, Beijing University of Technology

Judging was based on comparing the lists provided by each entrant to the actual high growth terms in a “ground truth” file (combination of  terms [Title NLP phrases, Abstract NLP phrases, Keywords-Author & Keywords-Plus] – minimally cleaned (consolidated singular and plural term versions and such)]).  Several entrants performed rather well.  To determine the final contest winner, entrants were also graded on the percentage of high growth terms out of total terms provided, the degree of growth of their terms, the frequency of those high growth terms across the dataset, the quality of the terms based on utility, combined with a qualitative assessment of the model used to make the prediction. We hope you all had a fun, learning experience.

Presentations from the “Measuring Tech Emergence Contest” Special Session at the 9th Global TechMining Conference (17 October 2019) is available at

Finally, we look forward to publication (late 2020, early 2021) of a contest/conference related special issue “Advanced TechMining: Measurement, Emergence & Indicators” in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 

Archive of key contest dates:

  • October-December 2018 CONTEST PRE-REGISTRATION.
  • January 2019CONTEST REGISTRATION and DISTRIBUTION OF PRACTICE DATASETS. Pre-registrants asked to approve a data “End User Agreement” from contest data-provider Clarivate. Three practice WoS datasets provided (free) to each registrant. Each practice dataset  contained WoS search results on a given domain for 12 years (e.g., ~10,000 abstract records on synthetic biology to give you 10 years of data to analyze so as to best predict activity in the following 2 years).
  •  April 2019CONTEST. Providee the contest dataset on April 22nd, required list of emerging topics on May 1st with a brief description of algorithm/process.
  • October 17, 2019CONTEST AWARD. The winner and second prize  awarded at the 9th Global Tech Mining (GTM2019) Conference in Atlanta, GA.

Measuring Tech Emergence OVERVIEW

Measuring Tech Emergence CONTEST

Measuring Tech Emergence CONFERENCE track at GTM2019

(Evolving) Tech Emergence BIBLIOGRAPHY 

Still have questions? Contact Stephen Carley at