Emerging industries are attracting increasing attention as they engage in innovation activities that transgress the boundaries of science and technology. Policy makers and industrial communities use roadmapping methods to predict future industrial growth, but the existing bibliometric/workshop methods have limitations when analyzing the full-lifecycle industrial emergence, including the transitions between science, technology, application, and the mass market. This paper, therefore, proposes a framework that integrates bibliometrics and a technology roadmapping (TRM) workshop approach to strategize and plan the future development of the new, technology-based industry. The dye-sensitized solar cell technology-based industry in China is selected as a case study. In this case, the bibliometrics method is applied to analyze the existing position of science and technology, and TRM workshops are used to strategize the future development from technology to application and marketing. Key events and impact on the development of the new, technology-based industry have been identified. This paper will contribute to the roadmapping and foresight methodology, and will be of interest to solar photovoltaic industry researchers.
Highlights
- We develop a framework for roadmapping the emerging technology-based industry.
- A roadmap of the dye-sensitized solar cell technology-based industry is developed.
- We find that research on dye-sensitized solar cells has been very active.
- We find that China is one of the leaders in dye-sensitized solar cell area.
Author(s): Xin Li, Yuan Zhou, Lan Xue and Lucheng Huang
Organization(s): School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University and Beijing University of Technology
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Year: 2014
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162514001644