Extended Abstract – NEW INDICATORS session at “1st Global TechMining Conference” 2011
Author(s): Ilya V. Ponomarev, Duane E. Williams, Joshua Schnell, Laurel L. Haak
Research progress may be either gradual or abrupt. While both ways are important, major advances in science strongly depend upon explosive breakthrough discoveries. Currently, analyses of emerging or breakthrough areas are rarely performed systematically and are almost always done retrospectively. We have developed several strategies for early detection of candidate breakthroughs, based on citation dynamics. Our findings can be used to inform portfolio planning practices and research management policies. Continue reading Predicting Breakthrough Papers: Ranking Statistics, Patterns, and Visualization