How to evaluate or measure the emergence degree or level for a specific technology is rarely discussed in the prior studies, and it should be a valuable issue for the relevant areas on technology forecasting, foresight, and technological strategies for macro and micro economies, particularly for those emerging economies who are chasing the technology advances in the developed countries. A conceptual framework inspired by swarm intelligence theory is introduced to measure the emergence degree or level for a specific technology. Swarm intelligence belongs to complex systems theory, and has evolved into a helpful tool for heuristic algorithms and optimization computation, and brought forward an insightful perspective on the evolution and emergence of natural or social systems in the past decades. To verify the proposed framework for measuring emergence degree of a specific technology based on the basic philosophy of swarm intelligence, a case study analyzes an annual set of emerging technologies of the World Economic Forum. The theoretical and empirical analyses could present a fresh vision to investigate the essence of technology emergence, and provide some supplemental thoughts for the policy-making on those emerging or new technologies.
Author(s): Munan Li, Alan L. Porter, Arho Suominen, Serhat Burmaoglu, Stephen Carley
Organization(s): South China University of Technology, Search Technology, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Izmir Katip Celebi University
Source:Technological Forecasting and Social Change
There has been much research concerning emergence in technology, ever since knowledge has been accepted as a prime engine of economic growth. However, even though there are a growing number of publications, the concept remains ambiguous. In this study, we aim to trace emergence discussions to find the evolution of related concepts, in order to explore usage in the technological context. To achieve this, the philosophy of science, complexity, and economic literatures are reviewed in accordance with the emergence concept qualitatively. Then, a bibliometrics study is performed to strengthen the qualitative argument and find evidence of emergence in technology studies for comparison. Based on the findings, we can assert that the definition of technology emergence needs to be revised with consideration of its theoretical foundations. Moreover, after discussion, research questions are posed for future research.
Author(s): Serhat Burmaoglu, Olivier Sartenaer, Alan Porter, Munan Li
Organization(s): Izmir Katip Celebi University, University of Cologne, Georgia Institute of Technology
This study empirically examines the association between the extent of emerging technological ideas in a scientific publication and its future scientific impact measured by number of citations. We analyze metadata of scientific publications in three scientific domains: Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Synthetic Biology, and Autonomous Vehicles. By employing a bibliometric indicator for identifying and quantifying emerging technological ideas – as derived terms from the titles and abstracts – we measure the extent to which the publication contains emerging technological ideas in each domain. Then, we statistically estimate the size and statistical significance of the relationship between the publication-level technological emergence score and the normalized number of citations accruing to the publication.
Our analysis shows that the degree to which a paper contains technologically emerging ideas is positively and strongly associated with its future citation impact in each of the three domains. An additional analysis demonstrates that this relationship holds for citations from other publications, both in the same field as, and in different fields from, the scientific domain of the focal publication. A series of tests for validation further support our argument that the greater the extent to which scientific knowledge (a paper) contains emerging ideas, the bigger its scientific impact. Implications for academic researchers, research policymakers, and firms are discussed.
Author(s): Seokbeom Kwon, Xiaoyu Liu, Alan L. Porter, Jan Youtie
Organization(s): Georgia Institute of Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology
Source: Research Policy
Technological Convergence (TC) reflects developmental processes that overlap different technological fields. It holds promise to yield outcomes that exceed the sum of its subparts. Measuring emergence for a TC environment can inform innovation management. This paper suggests a novel approach to identify Emergent Topics (ETopics) of the TC environment within a target technology domain using patent information. A non-TC environment is constructed as a comparison group. First, TC is operationalized as a co-classification of a given patent into multiple 4-digit IPC codes (≥2-IPC). We take a set of patents and parse those into three sub-datasets based on the number of IPC codes assigned 1-IPC (Non-TC), 2-IPC and ≥3-IPC. Second, a method is applied to identify emergent terms (ETs) and calculate emergence score for each term in each sub-dataset. Finally, we cluster those ETs using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) to generate a factor map with ETopics. A convergent domain – 3D printing – is selected to present the illustrative results. Results affirm that for 3D printing, emergent topics in TC patents are distinctly different from those in non-TC patents. The number of ETs in the TC environment is increasing annually.
Author(s): Zhinan Wang, Alan L.Porter, Xuefeng Wang, Stephen Carley
Organization(s): Beijing Institute of Technology, Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Current enterprises face organizational and cultural barriers to adopt and harness the potential of strategic emerging technologies. Late adoption of these technologies will affect competitiveness from which it will be hard to recover. Within the frame of technology analysis field, the present work aims at introducing an approach to obtain the characterization of emerging technologies, which facilitates understanding and identifies their potential. This characterization is based on the analysis of scientific activity, to which a set of quantitative methods is applied, namely bibliometrics, text mining, principal component analysis and time series analysis. The outcome is based on obtaining a set of dominant sub-technologies, which are described by means of individual time series, which also allow evolution of the technology as a whole to be forecasted. The approach is applied to the Big Data technology field and the results suggest that sub-technologies such as Mobile Telecommunications and Internet of things will lead this field in the near future.
Author(s): Iñaki Bildosola, Gaizka Garechana Enara Zarrabeitia, Ernesto Cilleruelo
Organizations(s): University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)
Source: Central European Journal of Operations Research
As one of the most impactful emerging technologies, big data analytics and its related applications are powering the development of information technologies and are significantly shaping thinking and behavior in today’s interconnected world. Exploring the technological evolution of big data research is an effective way to enhance technology management and create value for research and development strategies for both government and industry. This paper uses a learning-enhanced bibliometric study to discover interactions in big data research by detecting and visualizing its evolutionary pathways. Concentrating on a set of 5840 articles derived from Web of Science covering the period between 2000 and 2015, text mining and bibliometric techniques are combined to profile the hotspots in big data research and its core constituents. A learning process is used to enhance the ability to identify the interactive relationships between topics in sequential time slices, revealing technological evolution and death. The outputs include a landscape of interactions within big data research from 2000 to 2015 with a detailed map of the evolutionary pathways of specific technologies. Empirical insights for related studies in science policy, innovation management, and entrepreneurship are also provided.
Author(s): Yi Zhang, Ying Huang, Alan L. Porter, Guangquan Zhang, Jie Lu
Organization(s): University of Technology Sydney, Hunan University
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
This study advances a four-part indicator for technical emergence. While doing so it focuses on a particular class of emergent concepts—those which display the ability to repeatedly maintain an emergent status over multiple time periods. The authors refer to this quality as staying power and argue that those concepts which maintain this ability are deserving of greater attention. The case study we consider consists of 15 subdatatsets within the dye-sensitized solar cell framework. In this study the authors consider the impact technical domain and scale have on the behavior of persistently emergent concepts and test which of these has a greater influence.
For full-text view, http://rdcu.be/qfTB
Author(s): Stephen F. Carley, Nils C. Newman, Alan L. Porter, Jon G. Garner
Organization(s): Georgia Tech, Search Technology
For researchers and decision makers in any technical domain, understanding the state of their area of interest is of critical importance. This “landscape‟ of emerging technologies is constantly evolving, and the sheer scale of research publication output in the modern era makes qualitative review increasingly difficult. Scientometric analysis is a valuable tool for the quantitative analysis of research output, and is employed by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) Knowledge and Information Services in support of our research activities, for applications including identifying opportunities for academic collaboration, and technology watching/forecasting to identify emerging technologies and opportunities that may have implications for UK Defence. This paper provides an overview of our approach to conducting scientometric analysis of research papers and patent submissions. The methods for extracting and disambiguating publications are described, and the qualitative inferences we seek to make, along with some of the associated limitations and potential pitfalls are also discussed.
For FULL-TEXT see http://www.qqml.net/papers/March_2016_Issue/511QQML_Journal_2016_I_Anson_1-10.pdf
Author(s): Ian I’Anson
Organization: Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
Source: Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Libraries