Survey of Technology Forecasting Techniques for Complex Systems

Complex system design and assessment is a challenging task exasperated by the need to forecast nascent technology in system evaluation. Proper technology forecasting technique selection will assist decision makers to understand the risks involved in the integration of emerging technology into existing or new complex system developments.This research surveys the field of technology forecasting using both previous technology forecasting survey results and text mining on academic literature to identify 60 unique technology forecasting methodologies and associated variations. Then, the literature for the technologies is reviewed to place the technique into a family, describe whether it was quantitative or qualitative, indicate whether it could be used for explorative or normative forecasting, rate 12 criteria, and characterize the expected results of the technique. A technology forecasting taxonomy is created from the results. This taxonomy can be used to guide the designer or decision maker to select the most appropriate technique based on the purpose of a forecasting exercise, the characteristics of the technology to be forecasted, and the amount of effort and resources that can be expended for the exercise.

Author(s): Andrew C. Smith, Kyle Collins, and Dimitri N. Mavris
Organization(s): Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: 58th AIAA/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference
Year: 2017

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