The purpose of sharing this bibliography is to facilitate literature review and broaden our consideration of related concepts, methods, and case analyses.

We encourage all to correct and enrich this compilation.  To do so, please make changes and additions via “COMMENTS.”  We will consolidate such changes and periodically update this resource.

Adner, Ron, and Daniel A. Levinthal. 2002. “The Emergence of Emerging Technolo­gies.” California Management Review 45(1): 50–66.

Alexander, J.,  Chase, J., Newman, N.C., Porter, A.L., and Roessner, D. (2012).  Emergence as a Conceptual Framework for Understanding Scientific and Technological Progress, PICMET (Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology), Vancouver, 2012.

Allan, J. (2002). Topic detection and tracking: Event-based information organization. US: Springer.

An, X. Lin, C. Yu, X. Zhang, Measuring and visualizing the contributions of Chinese and American LIS research institutions to emerging themes and salient themes, Scientometrics 105 (3) (2015) 1605-1634.

Antons, D., Joshi, A.M., Saige, T.O. (2018).  Content, contribution, and knowledge consumption: Uncovering hidden topic structure and rhetorical signals in scientific texts,

Avila-Robinson, A., & Miyazaki, K. (2013). Dynamics of scientific knowledge bases as proxies for discerning technological emergence – the case of mems/nems technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(6), 1071-1084. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.07.012

Bettencourt, L., Kaiser, D., Kaur, J., Castillo-Chavez, C., & Wojick, D. (2008). Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields. Scientometrics, 75(3), 495–518.

Bildosola, I., Gonzalez, P., Moral, P. (2017). An approach for modelling and forecasting research activity related to an emerging technology. Scientometrics. 112(1) 557–72.

Björk,B.-C.(2005). A life cycle model of the scientific communication process. Learn.Publ. 18, 165–176. doi:10.1087/0953151054636129

Blei,D.M.,Ng,A.Y.,andJordan,M.I.(2003).LatentDirichletallocation. J.Mach. Learn.Res. 3, 993–1022.

Boon, E. Moors, Exploring emerging technologies using metaphors: A study of orphan drugs and pharmacogenomics, Social Science & Medicine, 66 (9), 1915–1927, 2008.

Bornmann, L., & Daniel, H. D. (2008). What do citation counts measure? A review of studies on citing behavior. Journal of documentation64(1), 45-80.

Bornmann,L., and Mutz,R. (2015). Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references.  J.Assoc.Inf. Sci.Technol. 66, 2215–2222. doi:10.1002/asi.23329

Boyack, K.W. & Klavans, R. (2010). Co-citation analysis, bibliographic coupling, and direct citation: Which citation approach represents the research front most accurately? Journal of the American Society of Information Science and Technology 61(12), 2389–404.

Boyack, K. W., Newman, D., Duhon, R. J., Klavans, R., Patek, M., Biberstine, J. R., . . . Börner, K. (2011). Clustering more than two million biomedical publications: Comparing the accuracies of nine text-based similarity approaches. PLoS One, 6(3), e18029.

Burmaoglu, S., Porter, A.L., & Souminen, A. (2018),  What is technology emergence? A micro level definition for improving tech mining practice, Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Honolulu.

Burmaoglu, S., Sartanaer, O., Porter, A., and Li, M. (under review), Analyzing theoretical roots of technological emergence with an evolutionary perspective,

Carbonell, J., Sanchez-Esguevillas, A., & Carro, B. (2018). Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories. Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet (vol 30, pg 113, 2017). Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 30(1), Iii-Iii. doi:10.1080/09537325.2017.1344005

Carley, Stephen F., Newman, Nils C., Porter, Alan L., and Garner, Jon G. (2017). A measure of staying power: Is the persistence of emergent concepts more significantly influenced by technical domain or scale?  Scientometrics, 111 (3) 2077-2087; doi:10.1007/s11192-017-2342-x.

Carley, S.F., Newman, N.C., Porter, A.L., and Garner, J. (2018).  An indicator of technical emergence, Scientometrics, 115 (1), 35-49;

P-L. Chang, C-C. Wu, H-J. Leu, Using patent analyses to monitor the technological trends in an emerging field of technology: A case of carbon nanotube field emission display, Scientometrics, 82 (1) (2010) 5–19; doi:10.1007/s11192-009-0033-y.

Chen, C. (2004). Searching for intellectual turning points: progressive knowledge domain visualization. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 5303–5310. doi:10.1073/ pnas.0307513100

Chen, C. (2006). Citespace II: Detecting and visualizing emerging trends and transient patterns in scientific literature. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 57(3), 359–377.

Chen, C., Chen, Y., Horowitz, M., Hou, H., Liu, Z., & Pellegrino, D. (2009). Towards an explanatory and computational theory of scientific discovery. Journal of Informetrics, 3(3), 191–209.

Chen, K.-Y., Luesukprasert, L., & Seng-cho, T. C. (2007). Hot topic extraction based on timeline analysis and multidimensional sentence modeling. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering, 19(8).

Choi, Y. Park, Monitoring the organic structure of technology based on the patent development paths, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 76 (6) (2009) 754–768; doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2008.10.007.

Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews, Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances, National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2005.

Corning, P. A. (2002). The re-emergence of “emergence”: A venerable concept in search of a theory. Complexity, 7(6), 18-30. doi:10.1002/cplx.10043

ozzens, S., Gatchair, S., Kang, J., Kim, K., Lee, H.H., Ordonez, G., and Porter, A.L. (2010).  Emerging technologies: quantitative identification and measurement, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management  22 (3): 361–376.

Crutchfield, J. P. (2013). Is anything ever new? Considering emergence. In M. A. Bedau & P. Humphreys (Eds.), Emergence: Contemporary readings in philosophy and science. MIT Press Scholarship Online: The MIT Press.

Danneels, Erwin. 2004. “Disruptive Technology Reconsidered: A Critique and Re­search Agenda.” Journal of Product Innovation Management 21(4): 246–58.

T.U. Daim, T.U., Rueda, G., Martin, H., and Gerdsri, P. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies: use of bibliometrics and patent analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73:981–1012

de Haan, How emergence arises. Ecological Complexity 3 (4) (2006) 293–301

Ding, W., & Chen, C. (2014). Dynamic topic detection and tracking: A comparison of HDP, C-word, and cocitation methods. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 65(10), 2084-2097.

Einsiedel, Edna. 2009. “Making Sense of Emerging Technologies.” In Emerging Technologies: from Hindsight to Foresight, ed. Edna Einsiedel, 3–11. Vancouver: UBC Press.

Érdi, P., Makovi, K., Somogyvári, Z., Strandburg, K., Tobochnik, J., Volf, P., et al. (2013). Prediction of emerging technologies based on analysis of the US patent citation network. Scientometrics 95, 225–242. doi:10.1007/s11192-012-0796-4

Förster M., Stelzer, B., and Schiebel, E. (2018). Stochastic analysis of citation time series of emergent research topics, 23rd International Conference on Science and Technology Indicators (STI), Leiden, The Netherlands, Sep. 12-14, Paper #211.

Foster, J., & Metcalfe, J. S. (2012). Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 82(2-3), 420-432. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2011.09.008

Funk, R. J., & Owen-Smith, J. (2016). A dynamic network measure of technological change. Management Science, 63(3), 791-817. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2366

Garechana, G., Rio-Belver, R., Bildosola, I., and Cilleruelo-Carrasco, E. (2018), Using take-off phase data for forecasting the evolution of emergent technologies, 23rd International Conferene on Science and Technology Indicators (STI2018), Leiden, The Netherlands.

Garfield, E., & Small, H. (1989). Identifying the change frontiers of science. In M. Kranzberg, Y. Elkana, & Z. Tadmor (Eds.), Conference proceedings of innovation: At the crossroads between science and technology (pp. 51–65). Haifa, Israel: The S. Neaman Press.

Garner, J., Carley, S., and Porter, A.L. and Newman, N.C. (2017). Technological emergence indicators using emergence scoring, 2017 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Portland.

Geroski, P. . (2000). Models of technology diffusion. Research Policy, 29(4–5), 603–625.

Girvan, M.E.J. Newman, Community structure in social and biological networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99 (12) (2002) 7821–7826.

Glänzel, W., and Thijs, B. (2012). Using hybrid methods and ‘core documents’ for detecting and labelling new emerging topics. Scientometrics 91 (2), 399–416. doi:10.1007/s11192-011- 0591-7

Goffman, W. (1966). Mathematical approach to the spread of scientific ideas: The history of mast cell research. Nature, 212(5061), 452–499.

Goffman, W. (1971). A mathematical method for analyzing the growth of a scientific discipline. Journal of Association for Computing Machinery, 18(2), 173–185.

Goffman, W., & Harmon, G. (1971). Mathematical approach to the prediction of scientific discovery. Nature, 229(5280), 103–104.

Goffman, W., & Newill, V. A. (1964). Generalization of epidemic theory: An application to the transmission of ideas. Nature, 204(4955), 225–228.

Goldstein, Emergence as a construct: History and issues. Emergence 1 (1) (1999) 49-72.

Glänzel, W. (2012) Bibliometric Methods for Detecting and Analysing Emerging Research Topics. Profesional de la Informacion, 21(2), 194–201. doi:10.3145/epi.2012.mar.11, EPI SCP

Goldspink, C., & Kay, R. (2010). Emergence in organizations: The reflexive turn. Emergence : Complexity and Organization, 12(3), 47-63.

Goldstein, J. (2003). Emergence, creativity, and the following and negating. The Innovation Journal: The Public Sector Innovation Journal, 10(3), 1-12.

Goldstein, J. (2004). Emergence, creative process, and self-transcending concstructions. In M. Lissack & K. Richardson (Eds.), Managing organizational complexity philosophy, theory and application (Vol. Managing the Complex). Greenwich, Conn.: Information Age Pub.

Guo, H., Weingart, S., and Borner, K. (2011).  Mixed-indicators model for identifying emerging research areas, Scientometrics 89: 421-435.

Guo, Y., Xu, C., Huang, L., and Porter, A.L. (2012), Empirically informing a technology delivery system model for an emerging technology:  Illustrated for dye-sensitized solar cells, R&D Management, 42 (2), 133-149.

Guo, Y., Zou, X., Porter, A.L., and Robinson, D.K.R. (2015), Tech Mining to Generate Indicators of Future National Technological Competitiveness:  Nano-enhanced Drug Delivery (NEDD) in the US and China, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 97, 168-180;

Gustafsson, R., Kuusi, O., & Meyer, M. (2015). Examining open-endedness of expectations in emerging technological fields: The case of cellulosic ethanol. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 91, 179-193. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.008

Harper, D. A., & Endres, A. M. (2012). The anatomy of emergence, with a focus upon capital formation. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 82(2), 352-367. doi:

He, J., and Chen, C. (2018), Predictive effects of novelty measured by temporal embeddings on the growth of scientific literature, Frontiers in Research Metrics and Analytics;  doi: 10.3389/frma.2018.00009

He, Q., Chen, B., Pei, J., Qiu, B., Mitra, P., and Giles, L. (2009). “Detecting topic evolution in scientific literature: how can citations help?” in Proceedings of   the 18th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management (ACM), Hong Kong, 957–966.

M.M. Hopkins, J. Siepel,  Just how difficult can it be counting up R&D funding for emerging technologies (and is tech mining with proxy measures going to be any better)? Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 25 (6) (2013) 655–685;

Hodgson, G. M. (2002). Darwinism in economics: From analogy to ontology. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 12(3), 259-281. doi:DOI 10.1007/s00191-002-0118-8

Holmes, C., and Ferrill, M. (2005).  The application of operation and technology roadmapping to aid Singaporean SMEs identify and select emerging technologies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72 (3): 349–357.

Huang, Y., Porter, A.L., Cunningham, S.W., Robinson, D.K.R., Liu, J., & Zhu, D. (2017). A Technology Delivery System model for characterizing the supply side of technology emergence: Illustrated for Big Data & Analytics, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 130 (5): 165-176. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.012.

Huang, J. Schuehle, A.L. Porter, J. Youtie, A systematic method to create search strategies for emerging technologies based on the web of science: illustrated for Big Data, Scientometrics, 105 (3) (2015) 1-18; doi: 10.1007/s11192-015-1638-y.

Huang, Y., Zhu, D., Qian, Y., Zhang, Y., Porter, A.L., Liu, Y. (2017). A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: a case study of 3D printing. Scientometrics, 111(1), 185–204.

Jaric, I., Knezevic-Jaric, J., & Lenhardt, M. (2014). Relative age of references as a tool to identify emerging research fields with an application to the field of ecology and environmental sciences. Scientometrics, 100(2), 519-529. doi:10.1007/s11192-014-1268-9

Joung, J., & Kim, K. (2017). Monitoring emerging technologies for technology planning using technical keyword based analysis from patent data. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 281-292. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.020

Kajikawa, Y., Yoshikawaa, J., Takedaa, Y., & Matsushima, K. (2008). Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(6), 771–782.

Kessler, M. (1963). Bibliographic coupling between scientific papers. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 14(1), 10-25.

Kajikawa, Y., Yoshikawaa, J., Takedaa, Y., & Matsushima, K. (2008). Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75(6), 771–782.

Klavans, R., & Boyack, K. W. (2017). Which type of citation analysis generates the most accurate taxonomy of scientific and technical knowledge? Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 68(4), 984-998.

Kleinberg, J. (2003). Bursty and hierarchical structure in streams. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 7(4), 373–397.

Klincewicz, K. (2016). The emergent dynamics of a technological research topic: The case of graphene. Scientometrics, 106(1), 319-345. doi:10.1007/s11192-015-1780-6. (1998). Emergence: From Chaos to Order. Reading, MA: Perseus.

Kontostathis, L.M. Galitsky, W.M. Pottenger, W. M., S. Roy, D.J. Phelps, A survey of emerging trend detection in textual data mining. Survey of Text Mining, 185-224 (2004).

Korzinov, V., and Savin, I. (2018). General Purpose Technologies as an emergent property, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 129: 88-104;

Kucharavy, D., & De Guio, R. (2015). Application of Logistic Growth Curve. Procedia Engineering, 131, 280–290.

Kwon, H., Kim, J., & Park, Y. (2017). Applying lsa text mining technique in envisioning social impacts of emerging technologies: The case of drone technology. Technovation, 60-61, 15-28. doi:10.1016/j.technovation.2017.01.001

Kwon, S., Porter, A.L., and Youtie, J. (2016), Navigating the innovation trajectories of technology by combining specialization score analyses for publications and patents– Graphene and Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery; Scientometrics 106 (3), 1057-1071.

Lahoti, G., Porter, A.L., Zhang, C., Youtie, J., and Wang, B. (2018 to appear). Tech mining to validate and refine a technology roadmap, World Patent Information,

Lee, C., Kang, B., and Shin, J. (2015), Novelty-focused patent mapping for technology opportunity analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change: 90 (B), 355-365.

Lee, C., Kwon, O., Kim, M., & Kwon, D. (2018). Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 127, 291-303. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.002

Lee, S. Lee, S., Seol, H., and Park, Y. (2008).  Using patent information for designing new product and technology: keyword based technology roadmapping, Research Management 38 (2): 169–188.

Lee, W. H. (2008). How to identify emerging research fields using scientometrics: An example in the field of information security. Scientometrics, 76(3), 1588–2861.

Leydesdorff, L., & Schank, T. (2008). Dynamic animations of journal maps: Indicators of structural changes and interdisciplinary developments. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 59(11), 1810–1818.

Li, M., and Porter, A.L. (online), Facilitating the discovery of relevant studies on risk analysis for three-dimensional printing based on an integrated framework, Scientometrics; DOI 10.1007/s11192-017-2570-0.

Li, M., Porter, A.L., and Suominen, A. (2018).  Insights into relationships between disruptive technology/innovation and emerging technology: A bibliometric perspective, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 129: 285-296;

Li, M., Porter, A.L., and Wang, Z.L. (2017), Evolutionary trend analysis of nanogenerator research based on a novel perspective of phased bibliographic coupling, Nano Energy 34: 93-102.

Low, B., & Johnston, W. (2012). Emergent technologies, network paradoxes, and incrementalism. Journal of Business Research, 65(6), 821-828. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2010.12.022

Lucio-Arias, D., & Leydesdorff, L. (2007). Knowledge emergence in scientific communication: From ‘‘Fullerenes’’ to ‘‘nanotubes’’. Scientometrics, 70(3), 603–632.

Ma, J., Abrams, N., Porter, A.L., Zhu, D., and Farrell, D. (to appear).  Identifying translational indicators and technology opportunities for nanomedical research using tech mining:  The case of gold nanostructures, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,

Ma, J., Porter, A.L., Aminabhavi, T., and Zhu, D. (2015), Nano-enabled drug delivery systems for brain cancer and Alzheimer’s Disease: Research patterns and opportunities, Nanomedicine: Nanotechnology, Biology and Medicine 11 (7), 1763-1771; DOI: 10.1016/j.nano.2015.06.006.

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Mund, C., Neuhäusler, P. (2015). Towards an early-stage identification of emerging topics in science—The usability of bibliometric characteristics. Journal or Informetrics, 9(4), 1018–33.

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Porter, A.L., and Cunningham, S.W., Tech Mining:  Exploiting New Technologies for Competitive Advantage, Wiley, New York, 2005 [Chinese edition, Tsinghua University Press, 2012].

Porter, A.L., Cunningham, S.W., and Sanz, A., (2015), Advancing the Forecasting Innovation Pathways Approach: Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Case,  International Journal of Technology Management 69 (3-4), 275-300. DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.2015.072975.

Porter, A.L., Garner, J., Carley, S.F., and Newman, N.C. (2018), Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players, Technological Forecasting and Social Change,

Porter, A.L., Garner, J., Newman, N.C., Carley, S.F., Youtie, J., Kwon, S., and Li, Y. (to appear), National nanotechnology research prominence, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management

Porter, A. L., & Rafols, I. (2009). Is science becoming more interdisciplinary? Measuring and mapping six research fields over time. Scientometrics, 81(3), 719–745.

Porter, A., Youtie, J., Carley, S., Newman, N., and Murdick, D. (2018).  Contest: Measuring tech emergence, 23rd International Conference on Science and Technology Indicators (STI), Leiden, The Netherlands, Sep. 12-14, Paper #232.

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Suominen, A., and Newman, N.C. (2017). A critical evaluation of the technological emergence concept.  Proceedings of the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), Portland.

Suominen, A., Peng, H., and Ranaei, S. (2018), Examining the dynamics of an emerging research network using the case of triboelectric nanogenerators, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, forthcoming.

Takeda, Y., & Kajikawa, Y. (2009). Optics: A bibliometric approach to detect emerging research domains and intellectual bases. Scientometrics, 78(3), 543–558.

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