Category: Future-oriented technology analysis

  • Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents

    To estimate the future development of one technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not, one needs to know the current stage of its technology life cycle (TLC). The dominant approach to analyzing TLC uses the S-curve to observe patent applications over time. But using the patent application counts alone to represent…

  • Text mining of information resources to inform Forecasting Innovation Pathways

    Highly uncertain dynamics of New and Emerging Science and Technologies (NEST) pose special challenges to traditional forecasting tools. This paper explores the systematisation of the ‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways’ analytical approach through the application of Tech Mining.

  • Dynamics of scientific knowledge bases as proxies for discerning technological emergence — The case of MEMS/NEMS technologies

    Emerging technologies embrace the very early stages of socio-technological evolution. Despite their appealing nature, they have been loosely defined and operationalized. In particular, operationalization approaches based on bibliometric methods have often tended to emphasize the exponential growth and the potential impacts of emerging technologies while overlooking their inherent uncertainty and ‘fluidity’.

  • Technological Forecasting on Phytotherapics Development in Brazil

    The prospective analysis is presented as an important tool to identify the most relevant opportunities and needs in research and development from planned interventions in innovation systems.   This study chose Phyllanthus niruri, known as “stone break” to describe the knowledge about the specie, by using biotechnological forecasting through the software Vantage Point. It can be…