Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players

Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify “hot topic” terms. We then use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at frontiers in a target R&D domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper presents illustrative results for example topics – Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.016

Author(s): Alan L. Porter, Jon Garner, Stephen F. Carley, Nils C. Newman
Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Year: 2018

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